Getting Out

Giuliani out. Edwards out. Possible dirt on Obama coming out?

It is possible that McCain could win the whole thing. The polling on this is interesting. The Republicans are solidly split between people that, to sum up, think Bush has done a good job and that abortion should be illegal - they go to Romney - and people that oppose the "traditional" crazy right wing of the Republicans - they go to McCain. That's why the seemingly strange fact that anti-war Republican voters are going to McCain.

The Reagon strategy has run it's course. Rove and company took it too far by electing a complete fool, starting their neo-con holy war and feeding America mindless slogans for 7 years. What you're seeing is a backlash by the majority of Republicans that never did buy into the religious craziness and culture of fear and dogma. All this is also why McCain has been so shut out over the past 6 or 7 years. He's always opposed all that.

So, in general, we're looking at the scariest possible Republican to run against - a grown up. A person that will base policy on thought rather than dogma... We haven't seen a Republican like that get the nomination since Ford ran and lost to Jimmy Carter. In the long run, it's better this way. America could not survive another complete kook.

Many really don't think Obama can beat McCain. And Clinton's not a sure thing either, but for different reasons. Who would have thought, after two destructive terms under what will undoubtedly go down as the worst President in history that the incumbent party could actually stand a chance?

However, something that is both a strength and a weakness of McCain's is already beginning to show. He's really bad at "on message" campaigning. Slogans aren't his style and he does poorly when he tries to do a G.W. like, traditional GOP, strategy.

Clinton will do that in a heartbeat though. She'll pick something and focus like a laser on it with nice short sentences that get everyone worked up. Before anyone can respond, she move to another issue. Watch for lots of banners with short, simple phrases repeated on them. They look good on TV.

It's just a matter of whether or not that will still work. Against that, McCain is likely to be the sort of person that stands around telling people it's really more complicated than that, and calling it "straight talk". Ironicly, that's more like Bill Clinton's style. And it could do well.

Obama, I don't know. He's a fantastic speaker, and good on his feet. But he doesn't have much experience on the big stage; the general election. But he'd have to pick a strategy too. Maybe if he gets good people to help, they could win. Maybe. If the seasoned warriors aren't all working for Clinton.